March, 2010


26
Mar 10

Heritage Key Outranks British Museum on Alexa

It’s a small milestone for our work on Heritage Key that the site now outranks the British Museum in Alexa rankings–both US and UK.  We opened our site only in August 2009 and the British Museum has more than 5 million physical visits, sells tickets to events and is generally the greatest museum for ancient world history. Today our ranking is Alexa global ranking is 57,100 and BM is 57, 196 — we are also even better in the UK (3,995 vs 4,176) which is a surprise to us.

I don’t really know how solid the Alexa rankings are, but they are something relative.  Looking at our Google stats and system info is obviously more detailed. We are also happy to see our Google page rank at 5 now. The BM is as you would expect, 7.

In fairness, I don’t think the BM is that bothered about their online presence. Their very interesting series with BBC is probably pulling a lot of traffic (although the flash bit isn’t crawlable) and there is even a nice questing game. We have perhaps a lot more interactive content with virtual Stonehenge, King Tut as well as quizzes on-site.   We also did expect to pass the BM in rankings as we are more focused on SEO and create a lot of new content targeted toward online users — like new video such as the Boudicca episode for Ancient World in London which is getting a lot of views. The BM also isn’t allowing comments or any UGC.

Main take-aways for this milestone:

* Brands like Heritage Key that can span interests across many traditional things like museums, movies, television and events will out-rank individual sites. We see this also even in publishing with one of our favourite sites the Daily Beast. But you can’t just be an umbrella — you need the strong brand and original content (we have already posted more than 8,000 pieces of new content as well as have the amazing 3D virtual online experiences).

* Traditional Brands might not be that worried (the BM is posting more and more footfall each year), but they are missing out on monetizing the global online audience. Check the stats on where that market is heading here. The actual cost to participate in the online boom for trusted brands is not that high, but it will require attention and action.

* Community sites are the future of the web. Push publishing and searching catalogues are not compelling enough to get above the noise. There needs to be something interesting and relevant to define the soul of community.  Check sites like Livestrong where they got it going on already.

Next steps — Louvre (41,109)  and then the Met (21,213)!

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24
Mar 10

Magical 3D Cloud Rendering Coming to a Cheap PC Near You Soon?

Otoy and Super Micro plus AMD are announcing what really seems like magic for 3D immersive online. If I got it right it means a cheap PC without a fancy graphics card will be able to stream 3D immersive content dramatically faster, better.

Mar 19, 2010According to the Otoy press release the service will improve user experience “through server-side rendering – which involves storing visually rich content in a compute cloud, compressing it, and streaming it in real-time” . This could increase capability on mobiles as well.  I can see how that might work for the visuals, but how will that impact concurrent physics activity? Is this a real uplift or another fancy/expensive way to burn up bandwidth?

And if Google’s big as a gig internet mega-speed service really can rollout what would that combination look like?

And what about the new 3D Televisions? Samsung has them and Dreamworks is already making blu-rays to play on them. Guess we will need to make and 2nd trailing camera for avatars soon to capture 3D online in real 3D.

So buckle-in for a lot of expensive equipment coming down the line and a lot of opportunities to make them do something cool enough.

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22
Mar 10

FT Strengthens Paywall, Does Special Google Access Track

naked girl swinging from chandelier sketch wallpaper

Ft.com is swinging from their chandeliers with 120,000 paying online club members. But is a closed community a long-term play?

Getting people to pay for content is the major focus for online. The Financial Times is taking a big lead in this area with more than 120,000 paying customers forking out £4 a week = £500k/week revenues . They claim to have 1.9 million registered users as well. The FT is an interesting case study as it has a very loyal following, is globally respected and customers have money.(ok, so WoW has 11.5mm paying customers paying £7/month)

This move raises some interesting questions? Is 120,000 a large or a small set of customers? More to the point is £25 million in revenue a year a  big enough number? For the FT as a publisher any cash has got to be good cash. They post 480,000 daily paper readers. They claim 55 million pageviews and 2.7 million unqiues. As a guess maybe the can monetize 75 million page impressions and yield £2.5 which is less than £200,000 month. The New York Times said back in 2008 that they needed 1.3 Billion pageviews to make online interesting– they only had 173mm at the time.

What is the trade-off? Blocking traffic will certainly reduce pageviews big time. Fewer pageviews  reduces click related ad revenue. Anyway for the Ft.com even if they lose 50% of their pagewviews–they only need 25,000 new customers in a year to break even on their paywall–which is less than 1% conversion on their uniques. The FT is really a sort of financial club, so is losing a bunch of non-payers even negative? More likely it will make their paying customers feel like they are getting inside track/info.

A bigger issue for FT has to be the cannibalisation of the newspaper subscribers. The better the ft.com offering, the less likely it is that busy jet-setters, captains of industry will buy the physical paper and just take the iPad versions. Probably 80% of the 120,000 paying ft.com customers also are within the 480,000 paper subscribers.  Do you want the FT twice?  Do those customers care? Or are the delivery mechanisms useful for different purposes?

The New York Times, which is not clubby and has much larger circulation and online viewership,  is launching a premium content plus special viewer offering called the Times Reader 2.0. It is an interesting move to make the paper more interactive online — cool enough crossword puzzles!  Maybe they will have special first person shooter games soon — play the Obama administration game of hunting up votes in Congress?

Dropping the free access also expands the market for their competitors–like Economist or Yahoo Finance. Economist is still trying to get their own paywall gambit lined-up.  Bloomberg is free on tv also.

The dual track access via google search is perhaps ok as tech solution to peek and pay, but really looks like bait/switch. Hitting the excerpt is more frustrating and I don’t think will help FT eat their customer cake and sell the crumbs to the unwashed public.

In terms of online community — is there something to consider about a closed community versus a public one?  Perhaps this paywall strategy will do quite a bit of damage to the randomness of comments and the dynamic nature of what the ft.com could be otherwise?

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5
Mar 10

How To Make Virtual Spaces That Engage and Challenge – 13 Best Practices

(written as advance thoughts for a talk called “Touch_Start: Designing Interactive Game-Based Elements”, given at ALA The Future Is Now: Libraries and Museums in Virtual Worlds conference for on March 5, 2010)

Imagine teaching, or taking, a class on ancient Egypt and being invited to peer close enough to ancient artifacts, from all angles, that you can discern the tiniest hieroglyph on the back of a mask, without having to push your way through a crowd.  Think about the ramifications of challenging students to decode the meaning of a tomb wall painting in a certain amount of time, while they are standing in the tomb.  Take a minute to picture yourself surrounded by the objects you study, which have been modified slightly to react to your touch and your actions in ways that help you understand, imagine, reflect, or connect better with the subject, and with your learning peers.
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[tradingcard_carter.png]In 3D virtual spaces, interactive objects, game elements, and game-based interactivity can make this type of immersive learning a reality.   I’ve been re-reading Janet Murray – especially the chapters in Hamlet on the Holodeck: The Future of Narrative in Cyberspace (MIT, 1997) that deal with interaction, immersion, and agency.  Murray, and other scholars who stalk my bookshelf including Ian Bogost (Persuasive Games [MIT, 2007]), and Edward Castronova (Synthetic Worlds [Chicago Press, 2005], Exodus to the Virtual World [Palgrave/MacMillan, 2007]), Chris Crawford (On Interactive Storytelling [New Riders, 2005]), see immersion happening in familiar places, like the epistolary novels of the 18th century – as well as in virtual spaces that tell stories for historical and educational purposes. Then they take these links one step further, emphasizing that the computer making our connection to these spaces gives us agency (the ability to direct events), and that interactive objects within these spaces both enhance agency and deepen immersion.

*

The idea of interactive objects is not new in the museum space – the touch-kiosk has been around for quite a bit.  But enabling that kiosk to react to a visitor’s information – where he or she has already been, what they are able to do – is beyond the simple box.  It is not beyond a similar box, or even an artifact, in the metaverse, or virtual, space, however. In fact, a virtual object that does not recognize the visitor and their capabilities in some way is missing an opportunity  to make a connection between visitor and virtual space that develops into immersion.
*
So interactive objects are familiar things – whatever type of space they’re in.  What about game-based elements?  Game-based elements have a challenge or task at their heart.  Success or failure is possible, so there is risk.  And learning is possible, especially if one can re-engage with the game and try again. Goals and tasks combine with achievements and rewards to allow participants to level up in skill-sets and understanding.
*
When you combine interaction with games, especially in an immersive environment, you create a learning space that is rich in responsive objects, required tasks, and optional learning activities.  Reactive environments with game elements encourage exploration, challenge the visitor on several levels, and promote even more opportunities for learning at different paces, and for different styles.
*
Two of the interactive game-based environments we’ve been working on for Rezzable the past several months include the Steamfish project and new games and expeditions for the 3D virtual world heritage regions at Heritage Key.
*
Steamfish is a steampunk-themed game designed for high school students in order to teach principles of controlled clinical trials.    The game element here is a series of adventure-quests tied to building the tools and skills necessary to signal for rescue from a terrible crash; meantime, the students are afflicted by the same game engine with scurvy – and go through the clinical trial pioneered by Dr. James Lind in 1748.  Steamfish is filled with interactive objects that provide period-relevant information on morse code and medical theory, as well as clues to solving the quests.  These clues only become available once the player has reached a certain level in their quests, so achievement and perseverance is rewarded.
*
The audience for the King Tut regions, such as the virtual Valley of the Kings (recently profiled on CNN), is much broader, but our goal is similar: entertain, challenge, educate, immerse.  We’re just about to launch the new series of game elements in Valley of the Kings, and are already working on further enhancements and new quests.  The Valley of the Kings games trace paths of discovery for Howard Carter and his team as they uncovered the tomb of King Tutankamun; there’s a photo tour of the valley; and there is an opportunity to test your knowledge of Egyptian rites of the dead, by decoding the beautiful tomb paintings in a timed challenge.  The reward for this last activity is a peek at the afterlife, and some exclusive wearable prizes that make the difficulty of the challenge well worth it.
*
Why are we spending so much time and energy focusing on interactive and game-based elements?  Because rich, immersive, and adaptive experiences and activities turn 3D virtual environments into stages for learning.  The advantages to virtual environments for education are many – the opportunity to reach geographically dispersed learners, the ability to offer private field trips to exclusive areas at varying periods in time with activities potentially tailored to curriculum, and the ability to connect with students and educators interested in your topic from anywhere on the planet.
*
So here are a few of the best practices we’ve developed for interactive game-based design:
  • Plan immersive environments, not just objects:  the act of moving through a 3D space can be as educational as the interactive objects.
  • Develop avatars that are environment-accurate: giving visitors a taste of what it is like to ‘be there’ by outfitting their avatars allows them to take up roles in the game much faster.
  • Have a deep environment - backstories, links to other histories, related items:  don’t stop with the need-to-know stuff.  Put easter egg items in places for visitors who wander off the path – this encourages exploration, and rewards people who look closely.
  • Know your goal from the outset: Have the primary goal or goals clear from the planning stage and check that all elements of the 3D environment support those goals, or at least do not distract from them.
  • Know your audience: Different audiences have different learning styles, and different abilities to engage and to try unfamiliar tasks.  The more you can define your audience, the more you can refine the space for those learning styles and needs.
  • Have a rising scale of complexity: You are introducing visitors to a new visual environment, if not to a new technological environment.  Giving them simple tasks and challenges at first, and offering simple interactive tools to complement more complex ones throughout, can encourage people to take more risks.  Don’t give in to the temptation to make everything easy though!  Challenging tasks are important too – just as they are in the real world.  Those who complete the challenging tasks should be richly rewarded.
  • Have mulitple areas of activity: Don’t limit your interaction areas to one focal point – Rezzable is extremely good at creating environments with multiple activity areas, and there is a good reason why:  multiple areas offer different perspectives, different connections, and move visitors through the region.  They also keep a knot from forming around one space.
  • Give feedback early and often: Let people know what you want them to do, let them know when they’ve done it, and let them know what you want them to do next.  Offer encouragement and hints along the way, the ability to review instructions, as well as interactive points that reinforce what they’re doing.
  • Be generous: be generous in your feedback, above – and also with rewards.  Wearable items, things that aren’t available anywhere else, are great ways to let visitors show their achievements.
  • Keep your sense of humor on: whether your subject is serious or silly, or somewhere in between, players are more likely to stay and to call their friends in if you don’t take things too seriously all the time.  When appropriate, injecting elements of whimsy in your feedback, your rewards, and your activities is key for creating an experience with character, and not just information.
  • Plan for synchronous and asynchronous activities: Visitors may come from anywhere in the world, at any time.  Asynchronous activities allow people to engage with your space and the challenges you’ve set on their own time.  Having live (synchronous) events and field trips as well allows for visitors to build connections with like-minded people, ask questions, and create learning teams.
  • Have a web area for reflection, documentation, and competition: Virtual environments are well complimented by web pages that show what a visitor has done or seen, as well as how they’re doing.  This gives space for reflection on a task as well as sparks competition among visitors to gain more skills and visible rewards.
  • And most importantly – have great content. When you make a virtual space, most people aren’t going to come see it just because it’s cool tech.  People are going to come because you’re giving them something they need – a new way to see, and learn, rewards for trying new things, and a community of similar interests.  Virtual museum and learning spaces need to provide or have access to the best in content, ongoing content creation, and interactivity in order to become places people want to go to, return to, and learn from.  These may augment real-world learning spaces, and they will most certainly provide more access, at less environmental cost, to more learners.
This is how we see the 3D web, the metaverse, and virtual space – as a place where every object and environment is an information source, ready to share its secrets at a touch.  This is space in which to forge new connections between learners and subjects, between thoughts and theories, between past and present.  We see it growing in flexibility and reactivity.  The beautiful landscapes and exciting settings that we are familiar with in 3D worlds today are a beginning.  They’re an important beginning, especially for museums and education.  When you add archival quality artifacts that are interactive, and then push further to tie interactions to tasks and achievements, you’ve got the makings of a fully-immersive education environment.
___

Fran Wilde develops interactive and immersive environments for Rezzable, Inc., and was recently Visiting Fellow in Virtual Worlds with The University of the Arts, Philadelphia. She holds a Master of Fine Arts in writing and a Master’s Degree in publications and interaction design, and has fifteen years of teaching experience, from high school to graduate-level studies.

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1
Mar 10

Real-Time Social Web Market Size / Stats List

So the question inevitably is just how big is the the future of online, real-time social communities.  “Really big in 2013″ is the the sort of bar napkin answer.  Combine the opportunities of social media with premium content and digital goods to see that this new offering is in the sweet spot of online growth (outside of Search) in next 3 years. More sizing on the overall online market in next few years data below.

Foundry Wall Mural Shoreditch, Feb 26, 2010

Online market continues to expand and will leap into 2013 with mobile, social net and MMO driving innovation online. Search will continue to eat up traditional ad spends.

Key Notes on 2013 Forecasts:

* Mobile web is finally here? maybe! 2013 Gartner guess there will be more mobiles than pc’s by 2013. Screens will still of course be small, but fast access to net and better processors will allow new user experiences and constant contact with online services/content.  Looks like a battle for iTunes massive/dominant marketshare from Nokia, Motorola is on the way also?

* Advertising is diverting more and more from traditional to online–50% seems to be search related. Online advertisers like the transparency to link spend to customer transactions.  But– costs for search are growing rapidly (great for Google of course). Display in rich media/video also is hot for advertisers to get above the noise and have mindshare for early adopters.

* Premium content — via iTunes and paywall are growing rapidly. And high margin (Activision sets 30% margin targets).

* 600 million PCs will be able to play MMOs by 2013 — making PC the dominant access point (source PCGA) despite Mobile growth? Clearly these will need to co-exist and deliver a unified experience across brand.

Growth in advertising/interactive spend online

*$36.7 Billion 2013 up from $15.2 Billion 2009 (BIA/Kelsey via techcrunchies) meanwhile traditional advertising will decrease from $115 Billion 2009 to $108 Billion 2013.

* 2013 $14.3 Billion (from 7.8 2009) in US Display ads = rich media and video pre/post > source Forrester.

* 2013 $2.2 Billion social media (from $0.75 billion in 2009) > source Forrester.

iTunes/other app and premium content sales

from Gartner 18Jan2010:

* $29.5 Billion in 2013 up from $6.2 Billion in 2009.

* 87% of downloads in 2013 still will be free suggesting the “freemium” model is still best way to generate premium content sales as well as generate mobile ad revenues

Mobile Ads

* More mobiles than PCs by 2013 (1.82 vs 1.78 billion) Gartner.

* $3.1 Billion in 2013 (Kelsey via Clickz) of which $2.3 Billion will be search.

Sales for Digital Goods

* $6 Billion by 2013 (source Piper Jaffray via emarketer).  Report also notes that revenues in virtual worlds are dropping, while increasing in online social games

General Trends

* Highlights from Comscore Report via Marketingcharts: on reach/clickthrough: “Even as new capabilities emerge that leverage the “social” value of the medium, this channel already delivers substantial reach for ad campaigns and despite low click-through rates, there is measurable view-through value from these ads.”

* Olympics Viewers Multi-task(Nielsen via marketingcharts)= twitter and facebook while watching events.

* Top Ten Freemium conversions to Paid (source techcrunchies) = 1. Contact members, 2. Access to experts, 3. Storage, 4. Ad-free browsing, 5. Custom domain, 6. Enhanced gameplay, 7. Enhanced support, 8. Member visibility, 9. Networking, 10. Private groups

* Activision Blizzard CEO remarking on $4.28 Billion in  2009 sales from titles like World of Warcraft, Guitar Hero: “Despite these challenging times, in 2010 we remain focused on expanding operating margins by growing our high-margin digital/online revenues…we expect to deliver a year of record net earnings and operating margins and are taking another step towards our long-term objective of operating margins of 30 per cent or more.”

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