Posts Tagged: paywall


22
Mar 10

FT Strengthens Paywall, Does Special Google Access Track

naked girl swinging from chandelier sketch wallpaper

Ft.com is swinging from their chandeliers with 120,000 paying online club members. But is a closed community a long-term play?

Getting people to pay for content is the major focus for online. The Financial Times is taking a big lead in this area with more than 120,000 paying customers forking out £4 a week = £500k/week revenues . They claim to have 1.9 million registered users as well. The FT is an interesting case study as it has a very loyal following, is globally respected and customers have money.(ok, so WoW has 11.5mm paying customers paying £7/month)

This move raises some interesting questions? Is 120,000 a large or a small set of customers? More to the point is £25 million in revenue a year a  big enough number? For the FT as a publisher any cash has got to be good cash. They post 480,000 daily paper readers. They claim 55 million pageviews and 2.7 million unqiues. As a guess maybe the can monetize 75 million page impressions and yield £2.5 which is less than £200,000 month. The New York Times said back in 2008 that they needed 1.3 Billion pageviews to make online interesting– they only had 173mm at the time.

What is the trade-off? Blocking traffic will certainly reduce pageviews big time. Fewer pageviews  reduces click related ad revenue. Anyway for the Ft.com even if they lose 50% of their pagewviews–they only need 25,000 new customers in a year to break even on their paywall–which is less than 1% conversion on their uniques. The FT is really a sort of financial club, so is losing a bunch of non-payers even negative? More likely it will make their paying customers feel like they are getting inside track/info.

A bigger issue for FT has to be the cannibalisation of the newspaper subscribers. The better the ft.com offering, the less likely it is that busy jet-setters, captains of industry will buy the physical paper and just take the iPad versions. Probably 80% of the 120,000 paying ft.com customers also are within the 480,000 paper subscribers.  Do you want the FT twice?  Do those customers care? Or are the delivery mechanisms useful for different purposes?

The New York Times, which is not clubby and has much larger circulation and online viewership,  is launching a premium content plus special viewer offering called the Times Reader 2.0. It is an interesting move to make the paper more interactive online — cool enough crossword puzzles!  Maybe they will have special first person shooter games soon — play the Obama administration game of hunting up votes in Congress?

Dropping the free access also expands the market for their competitors–like Economist or Yahoo Finance. Economist is still trying to get their own paywall gambit lined-up.  Bloomberg is free on tv also.

The dual track access via google search is perhaps ok as tech solution to peek and pay, but really looks like bait/switch. Hitting the excerpt is more frustrating and I don’t think will help FT eat their customer cake and sell the crumbs to the unwashed public.

In terms of online community — is there something to consider about a closed community versus a public one?  Perhaps this paywall strategy will do quite a bit of damage to the randomness of comments and the dynamic nature of what the ft.com could be otherwise?

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1
Mar 10

Real-Time Social Web Market Size / Stats List

So the question inevitably is just how big is the the future of online, real-time social communities.  “Really big in 2013″ is the the sort of bar napkin answer.  Combine the opportunities of social media with premium content and digital goods to see that this new offering is in the sweet spot of online growth (outside of Search) in next 3 years. More sizing on the overall online market in next few years data below.

Foundry Wall Mural Shoreditch, Feb 26, 2010

Online market continues to expand and will leap into 2013 with mobile, social net and MMO driving innovation online. Search will continue to eat up traditional ad spends.

Key Notes on 2013 Forecasts:

* Mobile web is finally here? maybe! 2013 Gartner guess there will be more mobiles than pc’s by 2013. Screens will still of course be small, but fast access to net and better processors will allow new user experiences and constant contact with online services/content.  Looks like a battle for iTunes massive/dominant marketshare from Nokia, Motorola is on the way also?

* Advertising is diverting more and more from traditional to online–50% seems to be search related. Online advertisers like the transparency to link spend to customer transactions.  But– costs for search are growing rapidly (great for Google of course). Display in rich media/video also is hot for advertisers to get above the noise and have mindshare for early adopters.

* Premium content — via iTunes and paywall are growing rapidly. And high margin (Activision sets 30% margin targets).

* 600 million PCs will be able to play MMOs by 2013 — making PC the dominant access point (source PCGA) despite Mobile growth? Clearly these will need to co-exist and deliver a unified experience across brand.

Growth in advertising/interactive spend online

*$36.7 Billion 2013 up from $15.2 Billion 2009 (BIA/Kelsey via techcrunchies) meanwhile traditional advertising will decrease from $115 Billion 2009 to $108 Billion 2013.

* 2013 $14.3 Billion (from 7.8 2009) in US Display ads = rich media and video pre/post > source Forrester.

* 2013 $2.2 Billion social media (from $0.75 billion in 2009) > source Forrester.

iTunes/other app and premium content sales

from Gartner 18Jan2010:

* $29.5 Billion in 2013 up from $6.2 Billion in 2009.

* 87% of downloads in 2013 still will be free suggesting the “freemium” model is still best way to generate premium content sales as well as generate mobile ad revenues

Mobile Ads

* More mobiles than PCs by 2013 (1.82 vs 1.78 billion) Gartner.

* $3.1 Billion in 2013 (Kelsey via Clickz) of which $2.3 Billion will be search.

Sales for Digital Goods

* $6 Billion by 2013 (source Piper Jaffray via emarketer).  Report also notes that revenues in virtual worlds are dropping, while increasing in online social games

General Trends

* Highlights from Comscore Report via Marketingcharts: on reach/clickthrough: “Even as new capabilities emerge that leverage the “social” value of the medium, this channel already delivers substantial reach for ad campaigns and despite low click-through rates, there is measurable view-through value from these ads.”

* Olympics Viewers Multi-task(Nielsen via marketingcharts)= twitter and facebook while watching events.

* Top Ten Freemium conversions to Paid (source techcrunchies) = 1. Contact members, 2. Access to experts, 3. Storage, 4. Ad-free browsing, 5. Custom domain, 6. Enhanced gameplay, 7. Enhanced support, 8. Member visibility, 9. Networking, 10. Private groups

* Activision Blizzard CEO remarking on $4.28 Billion in  2009 sales from titles like World of Warcraft, Guitar Hero: “Despite these challenging times, in 2010 we remain focused on expanding operating margins by growing our high-margin digital/online revenues…we expect to deliver a year of record net earnings and operating margins and are taking another step towards our long-term objective of operating margins of 30 per cent or more.”

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14
Oct 09

From Old to Newest Media in the Time of Convergence

One of the biggest distinctions between the future of what users will want to do on the internet from what they did or in fact are doing now, is the difference between being passive viewers and active participants. Old Media doesn’t get this important orientation on how it needs to treat its audience. Imagine a bar where you could only talk to the bartender? It is like the mentality of the Economist to set a paywall for their content and beg for their “loyal” customers to pay. The “make–>push” content model is not going to thrive in the Time of Convergence (which is almost really here this now btw).

In my little sketch above I am trying to tease out some of the key issues facing online media organizations. Our approach of course, as you can see in Heritage Key ( I hope), is from the almost-off-the-chart right position of newest media. We are trying to figure out how to mix the content-focus with social tools with the interactive tools in the most unique way.

I can break-down some of our ideas as follows in terms of the content that we make and people consume:

  • News — breaking items, needs to be fast on the site and some value add to reacting to web flares, creating news content is a big plus
  • Articles — this is the focus of the commission effort to effectively surround useful topics with a series of articles, interviews, video pieces. You would expect to gain some lift on google/SEO as you create content against sets of keyword objectives.
  • Media — images, video, galleries, maps that are either unique or curated. Presentation and navigation are critical. We use Solr now to add discovery aspects to site search.
  • Interactive — answer the challenge of what to do on the site. So we have some quizzes, but really the big attraction for Heritage Key is the Virual Experience (GoVirtual).  While enabling comments on a site is not always so easy, it is hard to consider that basic feature as very interactive these days.
  • Directory — collects, curate, manage relevant data that is needed by the community. Add community/social filtering to expose data back to site visitors (i.e. popular, rated recently, new)
  • UGC — shift now is to manage the flow of user generated content and raise relevance and quality. YouTube is struggling as an example to separate out the noise/infringing content from the serious/regular content creators. My sense is that the site owners need to direct/drive UGC a lot more. It will be the role in fact of the site to help people do more than they can otherwise do themselves = a better package, more traffic, more distribution, more promotion as much as a better concept.

These are the components, the challenge is to get the mix right and scale the production costs against the overall revenue potential of the site/brand.

As we continue to rollout our vision on this in Heritage Key, it is clear why Old Media doesn’t get Convergence and why even New Media players will have challenges making the next transition. Organizations work better on push. You can plan, manage push in a much more predictable manner. Where the site needs to marshall the community, well, it is a lot more difficult and outcomes less certain. Video killed the radio star. The requirements for success in the future will be no less dramatic. The “push” stars won’t “pull” communities.

One way to mitigate some of the risk is to get the hardcore users into the alpha/beta testing areas. It is important to engage people that will be the evangelists or even find solutions with you. But you will need to expose the ongoing work–which is a minimum is uncomfortable. With large deployed online brands it may require new branding and even new sites as testbeds/community crucibles.

Another point in comparing the players that is worth making is about the cost of content creation. The Old Media players have very high costs, often with long cycle times from idea to publish. Production costs must go down. Newest media content production is low and will get lower. The quality is perhaps not the same, but as we already see with blogs and tweets the immediacy is must greater.

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7
Oct 09

The Economist Erects the Paywall (follows FT)

The Economist, who runs Drupal like we do as their core CMS btw,  sent me an email today explaining the free access to their site will change dramatically on October 13th. Content from the print editions and .com articles older than 90 days will only be available to digital subscribers–who will pay $79/year or $19.95/month. No Free Looks at the Newstand and Fewer Online also There is also an “academic” subscription for 4 months at $30.

Ben Edwards, the publisher, further tells me in this email (and really I didn’t even know I was registered on their site even) “We will also enhance the experience we offer our most loyal readers by expanding our subscribers-only features.” So, the Economist is trying to link loyalty with paying–seems like a terrible idea. Loyalty comes at price? In fact they are the ones “taking something away” from their audience without really offering some new value. So where is the loyalty on their side of the relationship? Wouldn’t it be more compelling to offer a subscription that added more than the free offer? Or maybe just state the truth–we need more money and less noise from too many users? But let’s see how it goes.

The Financial Times has been charging for content for some time already at £3.99/week = $640/year! The Guardian ferreted out of them that they have about 110,000 payers = more than $7mm in annual revenue.  Guardian quotes Lionel Barber from FT:  ” He said the new digital world “poses a threat but also an enormous opportunity to established news organisations”, and warned that the “mediocre middle” was most at risk.”

Looks like the Economist is going cheaper and after larger base of payers.  They missed the opportunity for the 110,000 and more people that are paying for FT. I guess they will need to market this pay-to-access a lot harder. Right now there isn’t much info on the site to inspire “the loyal” to reach for their cc or pp.

We think the “Freemium” model makes a lot of sense, but how it is introduced, marketed and supported is going to separate the winners from the panicers.  The example of Flickr charging for a “pro” acccount at $25/year seems to work.  There is in fact a massive amount of loyalty for Flickr as the hardcore use it as a key online tool/resource/social area. I would even say that Flickr could reasonably charge more.  Yahoo doesn’t release details on the value of the pro accounts, but we might guess they are worth $5mm–$10mm? But no mattter how you look at it they need other revenue sources–like ads shown to the non-pro accounts.

Freemium needs the revenue mix. The risk of course is that in going to a paywall like Economist is doing, you alienate your overall audience and lose more revenue in the process than you gain.  But maybe downsizing the audience and finding the true core is the way to go anyway. If there is a lot activity on the site, but no monetization from ads/sponsorship, then what is the point of having a .com anyway?

Components to the Freemium Mix:

* Subscribers — trick is to get the offer right and add something to free that is useful, but doesn’t cripple the free access = traffic volume

* Ad revenue — via ad networks, adsense / hard to get this productive without traffic and it can clutter up the site

* Sponsored Content — also good  for co-creation on new content that could deliver big lift for both parties

* eShop — exclusive products/web only — but what to make, offer and can you fulfil orders? and what about returns?

* Affiliate Deals — like Amazon, Commission Junction –which can deliver high cpc values, but maybe not high total revenue

One way to think about Freemium is to consider the marketing costs to attract people to a premium only site. So the Freemium has a built-in flow from SEO if you do it right.  if your content is behind the paywall is won’t get crawled = it doesn’t exist online. Also if you have a community site–well, you need enough people to have  comments, discussions etc. Premium only will never have the same immediacy, scale, rawness, openness as Freemium. So in fact, Premium vs Freemium vs Free sites will be very different experiences.

I think also there is an interesting aspect about the value of the community contributions. Shouldn’t people that make comments, add content get some recognition? We have a points system and can imagine reward activity on our sites. But of course we a fresh view on this aspect, where “old media” is looking to penalize the freeloaders (who in many ways created value for them).



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