The 3D Web is already here in some basic form and in the next few years it will become massive. My short definition is that the 3D Web is a:
3D graphical representation of digital information that is interactive and delivered within an online social environment.
The 3D Web is a lot more than a single virtual world. It uses some of the virtual world technologies, but goes way beyond to integrate with web and mobile. It is a new way to engage with information and people across the global internet. A lot of major forces are coming together now to enable the 3D Web to go mainstream. Following is a short video were I outline some of the key points about the 3D Web as we see them. Below are my more detailed notes on why that is happening, what is the 3D Web and how big are some of the opportunities.
Above: Watch Video Jon Himoff, CEO Rezzable Describes 3D Web and why it will be a serious factor online
3D is the Hot topic
The movie Avatar is the biggest grossing film ever, pulling in more than $2 Billion in box office (the franchise is planning sequels etc). 3D Movies (including Alice in Wonderland, Clash of the Titans, Train Your Dragon) in the US market were more than 33% of all box office sales since mid-December. You can bet that there are a lot of new films being planned for this amazing format now. Some interesting detail on how Dreamworks makes 3D movies. (check Intl 3D Society for industry info).
Beyond the big screen of course is your home television, where 3D is also headed fast and furious. Expect to see a lot of new consumer electronics and digital cameras for capturing 3D and sharing it back online (some gadgets now for sale). Samsung is betting big that the market will be 85 million 3D televisions units sold in 2015. The 2010 Masters Golf tournament had a special 3D broadcast so there are even some experiments for 3D native content.
I think people love 3D because it is so much richer. You can absorb a huge amount of detailed, stunning, energizing, detailed information very quickly. Your brain is working a lot harder to assemble all this data into something comprehensible. It is a much more stimulating time. Once you get into3D, consuming flat content is like looking back at old Polaroid pictures.
Yet, it won’t be reruns of “I love Lucy” alone (ok, I would actually watch that) that will people will want to see after getting all their kit sorted in their home. This new format will also need new types of content (Cameron is urging TV to get into gear and start making new stuff).
For online consumers, the drip feed of single thread content is too slow=boring. Active online consumers already don’t have the patience to sit passively still and slowly swallow 10 minutes blocks of shows in-between tedious ads. Already people are augmenting their tv viewing with twitter and facebook to make it more dynamic and social. They want to drive their own action. The want to be the stars of their own shows. They want to get to specific or related content fast. They want to have a lot of chats, interactions flowing as part of their viewing time. It is a tough audience with increasingly complex demands to meet.
Collision of Gaming and Social Web
Games already grab the attention of millions of committed users. Online games are of course interactive and offer something to do online. It is a seriously big business. World of Warcraft (WoW) has more than 14 million customers paying about $10 per month. WoW owner Activision (ATVI) is blowing its numbers posting $1.3 Billion in revenues for the last Quarter. ATVI has a $13 Billion market cap today. Farmville, a rather thin social game, has attracted more than 75 million players–Zynga boast more than 230 million players across its games. Zynga may even have an enterprise value itself of $5 Billion. Then there are the console games which have the kind of dedicated fans that sit out in front of stores waiting for new releases. (on its first day, GTA IV sold 3.6 million copies and generated $310 million in sales.)
- ITunes is projected to grow from $6 Billion in 2009 to $29 Billion in 2013 — and a huge portion of activity and revenue is from games.
- IBM is rolling out a corporate leadership training game called “CityOne“
Aside from the fun of playing them, online games are also very social. One of the drivers for Zynga is the integration with Facebook to not only attract new users, but to give a sense of status back to the participants. So social is not just about meeting/making friends, it is also about staking and enhancing your identity in the online realm.
Game guru Koster teases out the impact of social games as: ” The value in these networks lies in the connectivity to friends, the easy distribution of content across the social graph, the web accessibility.”
The potential of the 3D Web is to deliver then the next level of rich media that takes the best of gaming and social web–but also delivers this for mainstream content (ie not the ole ultra-violence first-person shooter, porno, gambling or fantasy role play).
What is the 3D Web?
Elements of the 3D Web have already been imagined in science fiction and key parts are out there on the web today. It is more than a lone virtual world–it is an ever-growing web of content that can be viewed via 3D graphics and eventually in 3D. This will be a lot more complex than clicking between websites and browsing pages or watching videos.
In the near future, the best of the 3D Web will probably be described as combining all of the following factors:
- 3D Graphics and 3D
3D scenes that you can move into in high quality and very detailed. It will need to be more than cartoons and 2.5 kid stuff to grab mainstream users. 3D graphics, in contrast to 2D photos, are like videos you can walk (or fly) into in some way. It will also be possible to present these scenes in 3D to users with new viewing software– the content is already good to go for the glasses and just needs new viewing software. - Synthetic Places
There already are streets, cities, locations modelled from real or created new that have a digital geography and are bound by a sort of gravity and physics. People get to know them and understand areas within them just in the way you would know a public park or mountain trail. They can get crowded or be empty. When you log-off these synthetic places are still there and evolving. When you come back they may be different. Or they may disappear. I like the term “Placeness” which sort of captures the real and the ephemeral nature of these digital venues populated by real people. - Your Avatar
This is your navigation, your presence and your guide to the virtual online areas. You control your Avatar like a sort of puppet. It is very tedious now to push it along with a keyboard and mouse. Our trusted computer companion the Mouse is on the verge of extinction. New natural movement interfaces like Natal from Microsoft and Omek will remove that strain from users by allowing control from simple human movements. Further, the look of your avatar can be customized to reflect your real personality (or not). Personalizing avatars is also a big digital content sales opportunity that some are valuing in the $billions already. - Real-time Social
You are connecting with people in real-time across the web. It is much more immediate than swatting messages around the net. Meet/make friends and also establish yourself within the global communities that you want to dip-in/dip-out of. The 3D Web pulls together the visualization, light interactions and status factors in a completely new way. For many this phenomenon is very threatening, but also very liberating. It will open the entire world to itself — fast and dramatic. - Useful & Varied Things To Do
Mainstream users are seeking activities online that help them do something meaningful. And they also want enough variety within easy access to give them the freedom to dip-in and out of experiences. Hot online transactions today include things like tracking news, buying travel services, buying media and dating. This is a key distinction from the gaming world or virtual worlds as they are today. People will use the 3D Web to add value to their real life and help do important things better. Just in the way that people us Amazon to buy stuff or Expedia to book travel, the 3D Web will offer more efficient ways to do things online. As an example at Heritage Key you can learn about history in an entertaining way and then even plan a trip to a real world site. Modern life in 2010 and beyond will be increasingly complicated (and maybe dangerous?) and the visualization, interaction and social capabilities of the 3D Web will be the platform to survive. - Easy to Use
Within the next 2-3 years all the clumsy, stumbling technical issues will be solved somehow. Already we see that software like OpenSim has made major progress in the last 12 months. The more people use it, the more chance things will get sorted. Then the complicated parts of the technology will be invisible. People can access the 3D Web across pc, mobile, tv. Also the big improvements in natural movement control will allow users to enjoy their online time more. - New Types of Content/Experiences
It is a more complex environment and needs a more goal-oriented path to keep people from getting overwhelmed. Just because it is there, does not mean people will stay around any more than they hang-out on web pages after they scan them. The 3D Web offers more and visitors will demand more, just in the same way you have an expectation that on vacation the real world place you visit should be better then the one you departed from.
Net Net: the results of the best of the 3D Web will be Immersive. This is where a switch in your head is released and you believe in the digital content that you are using. The engagement here is very high. It has a personal impact way beyond anything on the web today.
Massive Market Opportunities
- Reach 600 million connected users by 2013
1.7 Billion PCs in 2013 and 1.82 Billion mobiles means probably more than 600 million users will have access to good enough systems and connectivity to tap the 3D Web usefully. Intel is betting big on 3D Internet: Sean Kohl: “With the availability of all this computing power, we’re only beginning to exploit it. Now we’re adding more intelligence and more capability.” That total market will continue to grow dramatically (add the 85 Million 3D televisions also!). More market statistics on the 3D Web here. - New Online Use Cases
The 3D Web will enable completely new things online especially around groups of people enjoying shared experiences in real-time. This will change how education is delivered and open new opportunities for people to work together on projects. Visualizations will also be very exciting as well as role play and simulations. In general it is all the same kinda stuff that spurred the internet forward in the early 1990′s but in a more complex, intense format. - Premium Customers
The quality 3D offerings will be something that people will be willing to pay money for. There just won’t be that much good stuff and there will be tremendous demand. - New Companies
This is a fast moving space. New companies can focus in on creating new users experiences and tools to answer the challenges. It is still amazing to remind yourself that Google and Amazon are only around for 15 years. Facebook was started in 2005. There are tons of 3d Web opportunities across technology, infrastructure and new content experiences.
The 3D Web is the newest Frontier
We have taken the first steps down the 3D Web road with Heritage Key.It is a new online community with a totally unique virtual experience. We think it can be the basis for a new range of “real-time, online communities.”
From our side, we are focused on delivering a powerful mix of educational and entertaining content (edu-tainment?). You can transport yourself to the Valley of the Kings and enter King Tut’s tomb. You can understand how small a tomb this is and then go to a surreal cosmic gallery to see dozens of the most incredible ancient world artefacts every discovered. Your only other chance to see the artefacts better is to actually go to Cairo and visit the museum. The best pieces of the discovery do not travel as part of any of the Tut touring exhibitions.
Online you can get up close to see the details with your friends or participate in a live lecture. And the virtual environment lets you even travel across time to go back to reconstruction of a day-in-the-life of King Tut (check our highlights video here). You can wander a stately home in Amarna and get a feel for how the Nile supported the vibrant Egyptian culture for thousands of years. Watch Heritage Key coverage on CNN here. The market for people that buy culture travel services and related media is global and large. We think Heritage Key can add something useful to actual visits as well as helping people learn about why the ancient world is relevant to their lives today.
I would point out that the main take-away on Heritage Key is that we are trying to mix the online community which has the broadest reach via web and mobile with the 3D, virtual experience which has the deepest possible engagement. It is early days on this, but we can see that the combination makes sense and has huge potential.
